NOAA’s winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures across eastern South Dakota, Minnesota and northern Iowa from December through February, with a strong El Niño expected to influence weather patterns across the United States.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026-27 winter outlook Thursday. The forecast gives much of the Midwest an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures, while precipitation forecasts for the northern Plains remain uncertain.
NOAA places eastern South Dakota, central and southern Minnesota and northern Iowa in an area with roughly a 40% to 50% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures. The outlook does not rule out Arctic air outbreaks, blizzards or major snowstorms.
The precipitation outlook gives much of the northern Plains equal chances of above-average, near-average or below-average precipitation. That means forecasters do not see a strong signal favoring a wetter or drier winter across much of the region.
A strong El Niño is expected to shift the jet stream south and east, favoring stormier conditions across the southern United States. NOAA expects wetter-than-average conditions across much of the South and along the East Coast, while parts of the Great Lakes region have an increased likelihood of drier conditions.
The seasonal outlook does not predict total snowfall. NOAA notes that seasonal snowfall amounts generally cannot be forecast reliably months in advance, and a warmer winter does not necessarily mean less snow.
The outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027. NOAA plans to update its seasonal forecast Nov. 19.