(VATICAN CITY) — Pope Francis marked multiple firsts for the papacy, becoming the first Latin American pope and the first from the Southern Hemisphere when elected in 2013.
He was also the first head of the Roman Catholic Church born outside of Europe in over a millennium.
Following his death on Monday at the age of 88, the selection process to elect the 267th pontiff will soon begin.
Ahead of the secretive gathering of eligible cardinals for the vote, questions swirl over whether the next pope will similarly come from outside Europe, such as Asia or Africa, and potentially be another history-making leader.
“I do think it’s fair to say that election of an archbishop from Asia or Africa is certainly a real probability now. That is not unthinkable at all,” Bruce Morrill, the Edward A. Malloy chair in Roman Catholic studies and distinguished professor of theology at Vanderbilt University, told ABC News. “That’s very different from when, let’s say, someone like John Paul II was elected. It was a big deal back in 1978 because he wasn’t Italian.”
“To move a couple papacies later to a man from Argentina — clearly, it’s reflecting more than ever a global church,” he added.
The election of someone from the Global South would be a “move in that direction of how to be a global church,” Jaisy A. Joseph, an assistant professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University, told ABC News.
“That move from a Eurocentric church to a truly global church — I think that’s what Francis really inaugurated,” she said.
Pope Francis’ successor could be someone who continues his progressive legacy and mirrors his pastoral approach, or someone who counters it with a more conservative approach, experts say.
“Is he going to be someone who really strongly continues the primary emphases of the Francis papacy, or do they want to go with someone that they would see as bringing a balance or a certain pendulum swing, to use that language, in counter or contrast of priorities from the Francis papacy?” Morrill said.
Such a swing occurred when Pope Francis was elected, succeeding Pope Benedict XVI, Morrill noted.
“Is he going to be someone who really strongly continues the primary emphases of the Francis papacy, or do they want to go with someone that they would see as bringing a balance or a certain pendulum swing, to use that language, in counter or contrast of priorities from the Francis papacy?” Morrill said.
Such a swing occurred when Pope Francis was elected, succeeding Pope Benedict XVI, Morrill noted.
“If the electors are going to turn to someone and discern the way to go is to continue, strongly, the priorities of the late Pope Francis, Tagle fits the bill,” Morrill said.
“He’s likewise someone who smiles readily and has this warm pastoral way,” he added. “That’s what makes him the figure that we would think of as providing the most continuity.”
If elected, Tagle would be the first Asian pope.
Should the voting cardinals move in a more conservative direction, a potential pope could be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, Morrill said. Such a move would make for the first Black pope in modern history.
“There would be archbishops, cardinal archbishops in Sub-Saharan Africa that are much more focused on preservation or guarding of the strict traditional practices and teachings of the church,” Morrill said.
One name that comes to mind for Morrill is Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Other conservative candidates from Africa that could gain recognition include Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, and Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, according to Miles Pattenden, historian of the Catholic Church at Oxford University.
Cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to participate in the secret conclave inside the Sistine Chapel to choose the next pontiff, a gathering that typically commences between 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death.
A two-thirds majority is required to elect a pontiff.
Francis appointed roughly 80% of the cardinals who are eligible to vote for his successor, which could impact the selection of the next pope, Morrill said.
“He was advancing and choosing more and more people from Asia and Africa, and so that does all feed these distinct probabilities or possibilities,” Morrill said. “But there really is no way to make any solid prediction.”
The Pew Research Center found that under Francis, voting-age cardinals from the Asia-Pacific region increased 10%, and those from Sub-Saharan Africa went up 8%, while those from Europe decreased 51%.
In all, there are 53 cardinal electors from Europe, 23 from Asia, 18 from Africa, 17 from South America, 16 from North America, four from Central America and four from Oceania, according to the Vatican.
For Phyllis Zagano, the senior research associate-in-residence in Hofstra University’s Department of Religion, it’s unclear at the moment how that shift in makeup will impact the election of the next pope.
“The College of Cardinals has expanded significantly under Pope Francis, who has included cardinals from the farthest reaches of the world,” Zagano told ABC News. “Whether that will make any difference in the election of his successor remains to be seen.”
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