(KYIV, Ukraine) — Russia’s military has said some troops massed near Ukraine will begin returning to base on Tuesday following the completion of what it called “exercises,” in a potential sign of de-escalation amid continuing fears of a possible Russian invasion.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said units from its southern and western military districts, which have deployed thousands of troops close to Ukraine’s border, had begun returning to barracks. Video released by the military showed what it said was tanks pulling back and being loaded onto rail transports. A spokesman for Russia’s southern military district also said its servicemen had also begun leaving Crimea, where Russia has built up a large force.
United States and Ukrainian officials, as well as independent experts, though cautioned that it was still to be seen whether the Russian forces will now really leave and how many. Major Russian exercises are still continuing in neighboring Belarus to the north of Ukraine and in the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s foreign minister said officials would believe the Russian withdrawal “when we see it.”
Hopes that Russia might be moving to de-escalate were dimmed by Russia’s parliament which on Tuesday voted to pass a law calling on President Vladimir Putin to recognize two Russian-controlled breakaway regions of Ukraine as independent. The law appeals to Putin to recognize the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk” in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, pro-Russian statelets that were created with Moscow’s backing and troops during fighting in 2014. Separatist forces, backed up by Russian troops, have continued to fight a low intensity war with the Ukrainian government along a static frontline since then.
The move to recognize the regions would open a path to Russia formally annexing the regions, as it did Crimea eight years ago, a step that would likely trigger more Western sanctions and further escalate the crisis. The vote now puts the decision in Putin’s hands, who can decide whether to go through with it.
The parliament’s speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin, said the appeal would be sent to Putin “immediately.”
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the issue was “highly, highly relevant in Russian society” but told reporters not to get ahead of themselves, as “no decisions have been taken.”
The vote was denounced in Ukraine, with an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling it an “escalatory action.” The advisor, Mikhailo Podolyak, said if Putin went ahead it would amount to Russia’s formal exit from the Minsk agreements, the stalled 2015 peace deal aimed at ending the war in eastern Ukraine.
The U.S. and other western countries have warned this week that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come this week and U.S. officials Tuesday said they would wait to see if Russia really does now pull back its forces, warning they consider Ukraine still to be inside the window for a potential attack.
Satellite images and videos spotted on social media by open source researchers over the weekend and Monday showed Russian forces continuing to move closer to Ukraine, with some units taking up what experts said appeared to be forward positions. The U.S. on Monday announced it was closing down its embassy in Kyiv and moving key diplomats to Lviv in western Ukraine amid an “accelerated” build up by Russian forces.
The Russian announcement that it was pulling back some forces came a day after Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu briefed Putin that Russia’s huge military drills would end in the “near future.”
Shoigu told Putin that “part of the drills are approaching their completion, and part would be completed in the near future.”
Russia has always denied it has any intention to attack Ukraine using the over 100,000 troops it has massed near its border. Russia has painted warnings from the U.S. and other Western countries that it may be preparing to launch an invasion as “hysteria.”
A spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday said that the day would prove the Western warnings had been unfounded.
Tuesday “will go down in history as the day the Western propaganda war failed. Disgraced and destroyed without a shot being fired,” the spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, wrote on her Facebook.
Military exercises on an unprecedented scale are continuing in Belarus and are due to end on Feb. 20.
Putin hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for talks at the Kremlin on Tuesday, as Western countries continue intensive diplomacy to try to avert a war.
The U.S. has warned that Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine this week, reportedly briefing NATO allies last week that it had intelligence the attack could come as early as Wednesday.
Ukraine’s government has expressed more skepticism that Russia is ready to attack this week, suggesting it believes the massive Russian build up is intended to pressure Ukraine with the threat of invasion. Zelenskyy, in a televised address Monday night, told Ukrainians he was declaring Wednesday, the alleged day of a possible Russian attack, a national holiday.
Zelenskyy’s national security advisor, Oleksiy Danilov, told Ukrainian television Monday night that Ukraine did not see signs Russia is preparing to attack on Feb. 16 or 17.
“We recognize all the risks that there are for our country. But the situation is absolutely under control,” he said. “More than that, we today do not see that a broad-scale invasion from Russia can happen on either 16th or 17th February. We do not see that.”
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