Joshua Haiar, South Dakota Searchlight
Republicans are poised for plenty of guaranteed state legislative victories in the 2024 general election. But most of the candidates in South Dakota’s dominant political party who want a seat in Pierre will first need to face off in the June 4 primary.
As of Friday evening, the Secretary of State’s website listed 44 contested GOP primary contests.
The same candidate list shows that Republicans are guaranteed to win 17 seats in the 35-member Senate and 37 seats in the 70-member House of Representatives because no alternative candidates are running in those districts. Each district has two seats in the House and one in the Senate.
The filing deadline for state Democratic and Republican legislative candidates passed this week, but Rachel Soulek, director of the office’s Division of Elections, said candidate information can still change over the next few days. Mail sent before the deadline containing candidate petitions could still come in, she said, and it will take time to validate signatures. While no Independent legislative candidates have filed, they have until April 30 to so.
Already, the Republican primary election is shaping up to have several contested legislative races, showing GOP competition for 27 House and 17 Senate seats.
A wave of “fringe” populist candidates are trying to rebuild the state’s established Republican party in their image, according to Pat Powers, a longtime Republican activist and blogger.
“This is shaping up to be a more competitive year,” Powers said. “That’s for sure.”
Powers has written about Senate Majority Leader Casey Crabtree of Madison being challenged in the primary by Rick Weible, who has made a name for himself criticizing the security of the state’s elections and quarreling with Republican leadership during the legislative session.
That dynamic offers an opening for Democrats, according to Pete Stavrianos, whose career in Democratic politics spanned 1962 to 2004, in roles including chief of staff and campaign manager for prominent Democrats including U.S. Senators Jim Abourezk and Tom Daschle. He said the Republican party’s complete control of the state and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement’s influence on Republicans should worry South Dakotans.
“If Democrats campaign hard against this kind of one-party boss rule that commands South Dakotans to live a MAGA lifestyle or else, 2024 could well sprout the first seeds of a return to healthy two-party competition in our state,” Stavrianos said.
Longtime Republican leader Sen. Lee Schoenbeck, R-Watertown, is not running in 2024. Despite his retirement, he has been offering “good, hardworking” Republican candidates advice for beating “hard-right” primary challengers: keep the focus on local issues, and spend a lot of time engaging with constituents and community leaders.
“You must be a proven person of your community,” he said.
Six Republican Senate candidates have uncontested primary and general election races. Seats are assured for GOP incumbents Michael Rohl of Aberdeen, Steve Kolbeck of Sioux Falls, Ernie Otten of Tea, Kyle Schoenfish of Scotland, Jim Mehlhaff of Pierre, and Helene Duhamel of Rapid City.
In the House, four Republicans have uncontested primary and general elections: incumbents Will Mortenson and Mike Weisgram of Pierre, and Phil Jensen and Curt Massie of Rapid City.
On the Democratic side, Sioux Falls Senate incumbent Liz Larson is the sole candidate vying for a District 10 seat in the 35-member chamber.
The ballot picture is similar for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, with guaranteed Democratic seats for two of the body’s 70 members. They include District 10 incumbents Erin Healy and Cameron Nelson, who will face one Republican on the general election ballot. Both candidates could best the GOP challenger in the general election contest and retain their seats. The other could be in District 27, where either Democrat Elsie Meek or incumbent Peri Pourier is guaranteed to be one of the two representing the district.
Democrats did not put forth 105 candidates – which would be a full slate for contests in both chambers. The party put together a slate of 19 Senate and 33 House candidates.
However, Powers said Democrats did place higher caliber candidates on the ballot this year.
“There are not a lot of placeholder candidates,” he said. “These aren’t interns they could convince to run for office.”
Part of the credit goes to the Democratic Party’s current Executive Director, Dan Ahlers, Powers said. Ahlers has an extensive background serving in the legislature and working with the state Democratic Party.
Ahlers said recruiting experienced candidates with name recognition in their communities was a top priority.
“We have more candidates than we did in the previous two election cycles,” he said. “You don’t change these things overnight.”
Ahlers said his party has to work to convince qualified candidates to run in what he called a hostile environment. That’s bad for everyone, he said, because quality candidates result in quality government.
“We get what we put into our representative democracy,” he said.