Joshua Haiar/South Dakota Searchlight
Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden hasn’t said whether he’s running to keep his office next year, but his actions during the first few months of his administration suggest he could reshuffle expectations for the race if he decides to join it.
“Whether we can win is certainly a consideration, and truth be told, I’ve been receiving encouragement from people all across South Dakota to run,” Rhoden told South Dakota Searchlight.
Since succeeding Kristi Noem a few months ago, Rhoden’s put a contentious pipeline debate partially to rest, sought to smooth out Noem’s contentious relationships with Native American tribes and the media, convinced the Legislature to pass a property tax relief bill and launched an “Open for Opportunity” tour that has him meeting with the state’s business leaders and shaking hands across South Dakota.
“I’m humbled by all the support, but we are not ready to make an announcement until this tour is over,” he said.
Rhoden, who’s serving out the remainder of Noem’s second term, is off to a “good start” if he hopes to win the Republican Party’s 2026 gubernatorial nomination, according to Mike Card, professor emeritus of political science at the University of South Dakota.
But Rhoden is not the only hopeful with a tailwind.
Republican U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, long rumored as a candidate for governor, raised more than $1 million in the first quarter of this year. That leaves him with $6.8 million in his various campaign accounts. Rhoden had about $90,000 in his committee account at the end of 2024.
Johnson has a few other important things going for him, said Pat Powers, who writes the right-leaning South Dakota War College blog.
“You will not outwork Dusty on the campaign trail,” Powers said. “And I’m not kidding when I say that he’s got an unmatched campaign team.”
Powers said Johnson is likely running for governor. Johnson’s office acknowledged his interest.
“He’s committed to his day job representing South Dakota in the U.S. House, but is considering a run for governor,” a Johnson campaign spokesperson said. “He expects to make that decision over the summer or fall.”
The race could include other competition. Powers mentioned Aberdeen businessman and boldly pro-Trump Republican Toby Doeden and Republican state House Speaker Rep. Jon Hansen, of Dell Rapids as potential entrants in the 2026 race. Attorney General Marty Jackley is another name in the mix. Jackley ran unsuccessfully against Noem for the Republican nomination for governor in 2018.
Powers said Rhoden’s West River appeal — he’s a boots-and-hat-wearing rancher from Union Center — “makes it tougher for Marty,” who grew up in Sturgis and has farm and ranch land near Vale and Pierre. Without Rhoden, Jackley could’ve staked out a position as the only West River bona fide candidate, Powers said.
Republican Jake Schoenbeck, co-host of the Dakota Town Hall political podcast, said Rhoden’s West River appeal could be enough to box out Jackley.
“I just don’t see a path for Marty when Rhoden is already the governor,” Schoenbeck said.
Jackley told South Dakota Searchlight he is receiving encouragement to run for governor “from people who want a conservative in the race.”
“But right now I’m focused on keeping our streets safe and protecting tax payer dollars,” Jackley said.
Because Rhoden’s actions as the state’s chief executive are covered consistently by the media, Schoenbeck said, Rhoden’s name recognition will only grow from now until the election. That could be the equivalent of millions of dollars in free advertising.
“And people will see him as governor,” Schoenbeck said. “They will be able to picture him in the office, and see him addressing South Dakota issues.”
Both Powers and Schoenbeck said Johnson looms large east of the Missouri River, particularly in the state’s most populous city of Sioux Falls.
Rhoden’s lieutenant governor, Tony Venhuizen, grew up in the small East River town of Armour and lives in Sioux Falls, where he’s well-connected and could help Rhoden raise campaign funds.
Powers said Venhuizen was instrumental in the campaigns and the fundraising for his father-in-law, former Gov. Dennis Daugaard.
“But you know, Dusty also has a long relationship with many of those top donors,” Powers said.
Daugaard, Johnson’s former boss, endorsed Johnson for governor in Oct. 2024.
“I think he plans to run for governor, and I’m four-square behind him,” Daugaard told South Dakota Searchlight at the time. That was prior to Noem joining the Trump administration and Venhuizen becoming lieutenant governor.
State Rep. Will Mortenson, R-Fort Pierre, is a friend of both Johnson and Venhuizen. He also worked on Johnson’s first campaign for a seat on South Dakota’s commission of utility regulators. Mortenson sees Johnson as the candidate best positioned to run for governor.
“It’s not just the millions he raised,” Mortenson said. “It’s the thousands of South Dakotans who gave him the funds and support him strongly. There is a big sense out there that we need to get South Dakota moving again, and no one has a better track record of getting things done than Dusty.”
Johnson’s political brand
In 2022, Johnson bested Taffy Howard, now a state senator from Rapid City, when she challenged him in a primary for U.S. Representative and earned 41% support.
Howard is still no fan of Johnson’s. His politics, she said, will adjust to “whichever way the wind is blowing” so he can stay in office.
“And right now, that means going along to get along with Trump,” Howard said.
Card, the USD political scientist, said Johnson wants to appear further to the right on the political spectrum, to thwart a right-wing primary challenger.
“He has gone MAGA,” Card said, pointing to Johnson’s introduction of legislation authorizing the president to buy back the Panama Canal, shortly after Trump brought up the idea.
Card said Johnson may be coming off as inauthentic not only to Trump supporters, but also to the people who previously understood him to be a bipartisan, moderate Republican. It’s a point Shoenbeck echoed.
“That’s not something I would have expected two years ago – not something I would have expected of him,” Schoenbeck said.
Rhoden does not have the same kind of problems as Johnson regarding perceptions of his political identity, Schoenbeck said.
Johnson disagrees with Card’s and Schoenbeck’s assessments.
“When you actually look at the legislation that we’ve introduced, and when you look at the legislative successes we’ve had, which, again, by the numbers, are substantial, you see that that is the profile of a serious lawmaker,” Johnson said.
Johnson ranked 14th most effective among 222 Republican U.S. House members during the 117th Congress, and 58th of 228 during the 118th, according to the Center for Effective Lawmaking, which is a project of the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University.
The Trump card
Trump’s endorsement, should it come, could determine the outcome of the primary election. The president, who now employs Noem in his cabinet, endorsed Noem after the 2018 primary and ahead of the 2022 primary.
The endorsement is Rhoden’s to lose given he loyally served as Noem’s lieutenant governor, Schoenbeck said.
“Trump supporters listen to Trump. And if Noem goes to Trump and asks him to endorse Rhoden, why wouldn’t he do it?” he said. “And why wouldn’t she do that for Rhoden?”
Johnson is cultivating a relationship with Trump, including with a meeting at Mar-a-Lago in January. But he could have a tougher time winning Trump’s endorsement. He voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. He also voted to create an independent, bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in the U.S. Capitol, though he later voted against creating the House select committee that ultimately did the investigation. Johnson voted against ejecting Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney – a Trump target of scorn – from House leadership.
Toby Doeden identifies as a pro-Trump Republican. He formed an exploratory committee to consider a Republican U.S. House primary challenge against Johnson last year, while criticizing Johnson as a “career politician” and a liberal. Doeden later decided against running and instead focused on influencing state politics through his political action committee, Dakota First Action.
Doeden told South Dakota Searchlight he and his family are praying about whether he should enter the governor’s race. He said Rhoden is another establishment candidate not delivering Trump’s agenda. Doeden “cannot imagine a situation where the political donors allow both Dusty and Larry to run.”
“President Trump likes winners and leaders who can deliver, something Rhoden clearly lacks the ability to do,” Doeden said.
That stands in contrast to Rhoden’s record since becoming governor, which includes delivering on numerous Republican priorities. During the 2025 legislative session, Rhoden signed bills holding down property tax increases, allowing concealed pistols in bars and on public college campuses, restricting transgender people’s access to restrooms in schools and state buildings, requiring age verification for adult websites, and mandating appeal processes for obscenity decisions by libraries. He also tightened residency rules for voting and signed a bill banning eminent domain for carbon dioxide pipelines.
The new grassroots
South Dakota Republican Party Chairman Jim Eschenbaum said he was surprised when Rhoden signed the bill banning carbon sequestration pipelines from using eminent domain. Doing so was a top priority for a faction of the party.
The pipeline ban followed strong grassroots opposition to Summit Carbon Solutions’ $9 billion CO2 transport project.
“I think Governor Rhoden did very well this legislative session,” Eschenbaum said. But he said there is still plenty of time between now and the primary election on June 2, 2026.
Eschenbaum told South Dakota Searchlight that many Republicans he speaks with are critical of Johnson. A name they like is state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
Hansen would sometimes be introduced as “our governor” during rallies in opposition of Summit’s pipeline. He told South Dakota Searchlight that he plans to “make an announcement sometime in the near future.”
“I, together with a lot of great conservatives, have been fighting for an even better South Dakota where you and your family come first – not big money special interests and corporate welfare lobbyists,” Hansen said in a statement.
Amanda Radke is farmer, rancher, and influencer amongst the state party’s grassroots. She hosts The Heart of Rural America podcast and writes The Radke Report blog. Hansen’s efforts to defeat the 2024 abortion-rights ballot measure and ban carbon pipelines from using eminent domain, she said, have made him “a powerhouse and in the trenches of the conservative grassroots movement.”
“Should he decide to run and enter this arena, he would bring a powerful coalition of everyday South Dakota citizens,” Radke said.
Dan Ahlers is the executive director of the Democratic Party in the state. He said South Dakota can expect a contested primary election for Democrats as well, but did not divulge any names.
“We have a couple people that are looking at the governor’s race,” Ahlers said. “We could have contested races for all three of those top statewide races.”