Travis Kriens/KORNRadio.com
Heading into Week 18 of the NFL season, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is an overwhelming favorite to win his second MVP. Jackson is at -10,000 at some sportsbooks, while Dallas QB Dak Prescott is a distant second at +1,600 odds.
However, neither should win MVP because there’s another QB that is putting up a historic season.
With one game left to play, here is where my choice for MVP ranks among quarterbacks.
– 1st in QBR (72.7)
– 1st in QB rating (113.0)
– 1st in TD rate (7%)
– 1st in yards per attempt (9.6)
– 1st in yards per completion (13.9)
– 1st in success rate (54.7)
– 1st in ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt)
– 2nd in passing TDs (31)
– 2nd in passing yards (4,280)
– 21st in pass attempts (444)
– 2nd in QB wins (12)
This year’s MVP should be San Francisco QB Brock Purdy and it’s not even close.
If Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers or any other high profile QB put up those numbers, they would be an easy pick for MVP, so why isn’t Purdy?
Is it because people still can’t believe that the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is one of the best quarterbacks in football after just two seasons?
Is it because of all the talent surrounding Purdy in San Francisco that anyone could have success in that offense?
Is it that voters are looking to give it to anyone except the obvious choice?
Brock Purdy was the best quarterback in the NFL during 2023 and the numbers back it up.
Here is where Purdy’s stats compare historically. Not just this season, but all-time in a single season.
– Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.74). Third best ever.
– 8th in yards per attempt (9.6). Best since Kurt Warner in 2000. Third best since 1957.
– Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt (9.92). 9th best ever. Sixth best since 1961.
– 14th in QB rating (113.0)
– Yards per completion (13.9). Best in a full season since 1998.
Purdy just isn’t having the best season in 2023 for a QB, but he’s having one of the best seasons of the past 20 years.
Patrick Mahomes’ career-high in passing rating is 113.8, nearly the same as Purdy in 2023.
Mahomes career best in yards per completion is 13.3. Purdy is at 13.9 this season.
You can do similar comparisons to other big names quarterbacks and you will find that Purdy is putting up numbers that those guys never did, or his numbers are not far off those other Hall of Famers career bests.
Purdy lost the MVP award on Monday night, December 25 vs. Baltimore with four interceptions in a 33-19 loss to the Ravens, while Lamar Jackson has thrown for seven touchdowns and nearly 600 yards the past two weeks.
There’s too much recency bias this year. Voters were looking for someone to take over the MVP race when Brock Purdy was right there in front of their face.
Purdy threw for four touchdown against Dallas in a 42-10 on a Sunday night on October 8. He also threw for four touchdowns and 317 yards at Philadelphia in a 42-19 win on December 3. Also, a perfect QB rating vs. Tampa Bay in a less high profile game on November 19, a 27-14 win where Purdy went 21-of-25 for 333 yards and three touchdowns. For some reason, voters forgot about those performances.
Lamar Jackson will be named a two-time MVP next month. The QB on the Super Bowl favorite and AFC #1 seed. It will end up being one of the weakest, if not the weakest MVP seasons in the past 30 years.
Thanks to Scott Kacsmar on Twitter, just look at how Jackson falls short of past MVP, even his previous MVP season of 2019.
In a weak QB season, players like Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill are popular position players that will get consideration, but will fall short. I lean more towards Hill since I think he makes a bigger difference in the Miami offense than McCaffrey does in San Francisco.
Ask yourself this; how did the 49ers do against the Eagles in last season’s NFC title game when Purdy got hurt? How would the 49ers have done if Purdy doesn’t get injured, but McCaffrey leaves the game?
Nobody besides Mahomes has gotten off to a 25 game start to his career like Brock Purdy in the history of the NFL. Like it or not, he is here to stay.