Travis Kriens, KORNRadio.com
After watching the Minnesota Vikings for nearly 30 years, the franchise has never been more frustrating than they are right now.
The Vikings have won two playoff games in the last 14 years. One was the Minneapolis Miracle and the other playoff win came in overtime.
It’s time for the Vikings to take a chance. Roll the dice. Quit trying to be average. Quit trying to be competitive and try to be great.
Competitive Rebuild
The new administration of head coach and general manager have taken over the “competitive rebuild” that has seen the Vikings be as average as you could possibly be.
Last season, they finished 13-4 with a point differential of of -3, which seems impossible. It set an all-time NFL record for a team with that many wins to have a negative point differential.
A team that finished 11-0 in one score games, before losing to the Giants in the playoffs 31-24.
This year it was more of the same. A 7-10 record with a point differential of -18 and that’s with being outscored by 33 in the final two games of the season.
2023 saw an improved defense, tons of injuries and a rash of turnovers.
It hasn’t mattered who the Vikings have played the last couple of years, the game has usually been close. 26 of Minnesota’s last 33 games have been decided by eight points or less. Four of those games have been against the Packers. One was a meaningless Week 18 game last season at Chicago and Week 18 at Detroit this season.
Every game this season was decided by one score, except for both meetings with the Packers.
It hasn’t been fun to watch. It hasn’t been “edge of your seat” action. If every game comes down to the final two minutes, it gets old and boring. It’s like watching the same three hour movie every week, expect with different actors reciting the same dialogue with the same storyline. I’ve seen it. It’s old and beyond uninteresting.
It doesn’t matter if it’s the Chiefs or Eagles or Panthers or Raiders, every game is the same. It doesn’t matter if QB Kirk Cousins or WR Justin Jefferson plays, the game is still close.
The Future at Quarterback
Minnesota has a chance to dramatically change the future of the franchise through the draft, and who they choose to sign through free agency or who they choose to bring back.
The Vikings will pick 11th in the 2024 NFL Draft with quarterback being the biggest need. As luck would have it, the “experts” think this is an outstanding draft for quarterbacks.
I am sure Kirk Cousins will resign with the Vikings for somewhere around $80 million for two years. Cousins is a very good QB that has been in Minnesota for six seasons. He will be 36-years-old in August and will be coming off the first major injury of his career.
The Vikings need to make a move to have Cousins’ replacement on the roster by next training camp and selecting one in a deep quarterback draft is the way to go.
Take your pick; Jayden Daniels from LSU, Bo Nix from Oregon, Michael Penix Jr. from Washington. I would prefer Daniels or Penix. If they have to sit for a year or two behind Cousins, that’s fine. If they have to start right away because Cousins doesn’t come back, that’s fine too.
Trade Justin Jefferson
This is the more controversial decision. The Vikings are not going to trade Jefferson. They will try and get a contract extension done before the start of next season. What will that look like?
Tyreek Hill signed with Miami for four years and $120 million before last season.
Davante Adams signed a five-year, $140 million deal with the Raiders in 2022.
Jefferson will likely cost the Vikings $30 million a year. A five-year, $150 million contract seems about right.
The only way I would trade Jefferson is for a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft. Similar to how Minnesota sent WR Stefon Diggs to Buffalo for a first round pick to select Jefferson, do the same this year. Replace Jefferson with what looks like an exceptional WR class.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State, Rome Odunze of Washington, Malik Nabers of LSU. You may need to get into the top five of the draft for a few of these guys, but that’s what you need to get in return for Justin Jefferson.
Start Over Without Cousins or Jefferson
Why get rid of your two best players? Why start over when you have been competitive the last two season with them?
The lack of playoff success needs to change. You don’t play to be competitive. You don’t play to get into the playoffs. You don’t play to win the division. You play to win playoff games and win a Super Bowl.
I mentioned Minnesota’s lack of playoff success earlier. Two unlikely playoff wins in 14 years. Just three playoff wins in the last 20 years. That is not good enough.
The last time the Vikings won back-to-back playoff games was the 1987 season. You would have to be at least 40 years old to remember that. Unless they are getting the No. 1 seed, they are going to have to win three straight playoff games to just reach the Super Bowl.
Bring back Cousins and see what happens. Bring back Jefferson and see what happens. I don’t think playoff wins are in the Vikings future with Cousins and Jefferson leading the way. Not that it would be their fault, but the Vikings could fill out its roster by not committing $60-$70 million a year to those two.
How to Rebuild and Win
The Vikings have been strapped by the salary cap the past couple seasons, hence the competitive rebuild. Still trying to compete, while keeping your stars, without blowing every thing up.
I don’t see anything changing under the current strategy. The Lions are now the best team in the division, the Packers have found another good QB and the Bears have the No. 1 pick in the draft. Where do the Vikings fit in? Being average and maybe making the playoffs just to lose shouldn’t be the goal.
Instead of using $60-$70 million a year on Cousins and Jefferson, use it on something else.
Under this premise, Cousins signs somewhere else, while Jefferson is traded for a top 10 pick.
In 2023, a draft pick between No. 6-10 received around a $23 million contract for four years, with a $15 million signing bonus. In this case, the Vikings would have two picks in the top 10, so that would account for an average of $5-$6 million a year for two players, for a total of $12 million a year. That leaves $58 million that otherwise would have gone to Cousins and Jefferson, while already selecting their replacements.
2024 looks to be a really good free agent class. The Vikings need help everywhere, from DL, DB to continuing to add depth on OL.
Top 2024 free agents with their projected market value and annual value from Spotrac
Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City, Three years, $84.5 million ($28.1 million)
Josh Allen, DE, Jacksonville, Five years, $108.6 million ($21.7 million)
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati, Four years, $66.3 million ($16.5 million)
Jaylon Johnson, DB, Chicago, Five years, $78.7 million ($15.7 million)
Brian Burns, DE, Carolina, Five years, $108.7 million ($21.7 million)
Justin Madubuike, DT, Baltimore, Four years, $81.2 million ($20.3 million)
Christian Wilkins, DT, Miami, Four years, $80.9 million ($20.2 million)
Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Tampa Bay, Four years, $74.05 million ($18.5 million)
L’Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City, Four years, $47.3 million ($11.8 million)
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota, Three years, $118.8 million ($39.6 million)
Danielle Hunter, DE, Minnesota, Three years, $60.1 million ($20 million)
If the Vikings are willing to spend at least $70 million next year on Cousins and Jefferson, why not draft their replacements for 20 percent of the price and have $55+ million to improve the defense?
Go big and get the top two defensive free agents on the board with Chris Jones and Josh Allen, that would have a projected combined annual cost of $49.8 million?
Sign Antoine Winfield Jr. to potential replace Harrison Smith, while also signing CB Jaylon Johnson for a combined annual salary for about $34 million.
Would you rather have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson or Daniels/Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, and two of the top free agents on defense for the same price if not less?
The Future
Cousins has been terrific for the Vikings. Randy Moss is the only WR I’ve seen better than Jefferson and I think Moss is the greatest WR of all-time.
I expect both to be back for the 2024 season and beyond. I don’t expect the Vikings to be any better in 2024 or 2025 than they have been the past two season without some major changes.
Keep the QB and WR and maybe win one playoff game. I’m looking for something more.
You may have to take one step back to take two or three steps forward. I’m tired of being in neutral.
It’s time for the Vikings to take a chance. Roll the dice. Quit trying to be average. Quit trying to be competitive and try to be great.